13 Businesses for the Age of AI
Summary
There are only 13 viable business models in the agentic era—and they cluster around AI-native services (90% agent work, high margins), offline experiences (community, wellness), and distribution. Facebook ad costs have skyrocketed from 5 cents to $3-5+ per click since 2009, making customer acquisition increasingly expensive.
Key Takeaways
- AI-native service firms can operate at 90% agent delivery (not 100%) while maintaining high margins. Example: bookkeeping firms where agents prepare books, humans review exceptions, charged per completed job or monthly—requires few clients to be profitable.
- Offline/experiential businesses thrive in AI era because people crave community and real experiences. Othership (sauna clubs) started in founder's backyard before scaling—proving MVPs for offline businesses should use low-cost versions (food truck model) first.
- Distribution is the new scarcity—customer acquisition costs have risen 60-100x since 2009 (Facebook ads: 5 cents to $3-5+ per click). Building distribution channels will be more defensible and valuable than building products in an agent-saturated market.
- Membership models for experiential businesses provide recurring revenue and predictability. Othership charges premium per visit but scales via memberships—applicable across wellness, community, and local service verticals.
- The 13 businesses framework assumes abundant AI agents will commoditize most digital services. This creates structural tailwinds for high-touch services, physical experiences, and owned distribution channels that agents cannot easily replicate.
Related topics
Transcript Excerpt
Today we're going to talk about the only businesses left to build in the agentic era. Yes, I think that there's only 13 businesses to be building in the world of agents. Now, I don't subscribe to the people who say there's going to be this permanent underclass and you just got to create businesses or else you're kind of messed up for the future. I don't think it's going to be as dire as that, but I do think that in you know, in a world where agents exist, abundance are going to exist, owning these assets, I mean, are going to put you just in a better position. So, today what are we going to do? We're going to go through the 13 businesses that are left to be built. By the end of this you're going to understand all 13 pretty well, >> [music] >> why why there's an opportunity, why they're goi…