A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans
Categories: Product, Startup, VC
Summary
Benedict Evans argues AI is as transformative as the internet or mobile—but we're only at 1997 levels of maturity. Most people use AI weekly at best, most products don't work yet, and predicting which companies win (OpenAI vs Anthropic) is as futile as picking Excite vs Yahoo in the 90s.
Key Takeaways
- Stop predicting job apocalypse—history shows automation eliminates old jobs but creates new ones we can't yet imagine. Even advanced AI companies are increasing headcount, not firing en masse.
- We're in 1997 for AI: exciting but immature. Most people use AI every 1-2 weeks, not daily. Wide adoption gap exists between tech insiders and mainstream users—expect years before transformative impact.
- Don't waste energy on moral superiority or doom-saying about AI—dive in and understand what you can build with it today. Engagement beats abstention for competitive advantage.
- Avoid predicting winners (OpenAI vs Anthropic) too early. Similar to calling Excite vs Yahoo in the 90s, most specific competitive bets are wrong. Focus on capability adoption instead.
- The real question isn't whether AI is bigger than internet/mobile—it's understanding that pricing power, value chain accrual, and model economics remain largely uncertain despite massive hype.
Related topics
Transcript Excerpt
My most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile. What's your just the coming job apocalypse? Every time we have a new technology, it automates away a bunch of jobs and then that automation unlocks a bunch of new jobs and you don't know the new job cuz it doesn't exist yet. We've had that process over and over again. >> Even just looking at the most advanced AI companies throughout big open AI, everyone's increasing headcount. You talk to these doomers on Twitter and they would act like every big company is going to buy Chat GBT tomorrow and then in two weeks time they'll fire all their stuff. These people are morons. You can't predict which things are going to be exposed. You can't look at a s…